What’s the probability?

2020. What a year and it’s not over yet. It has been super interesting to see how people handle the same situation. While it might seem like we’re all in it together, I saw a great quote which said “it’s the same storm, but we’re all in different boats”. I thought that summed up a really useful way to look at it.

This year has been particularly challenging for the people who like to plan. When my husband and I were planning our “Wintervention Version 3.0” this year it felt more like we were 21 year old backpackers again – starting a journey and taking it one day at a time, not knowing what borders were going to be open and possibly closed again, as well as many other variables that were thrown into the mix.

Now having difficulty in planning a wintervention isn’t really that much of a stress compared to running businesses, companies and teams, as well as providing for your family and helping those around you navigate their own uncertainty. Basically, 2020 has been a pretty awful year when it comes to planning.

So here are a few things to keep in mind as you grapple with the abundance of variables and the lack of certainty.

What’s the worst that can happen?

This is the most unpleasant part. Think about what is the worst that can happen and how you might deal with that if you absolutely had to.

What’s the probability of that happening?

Now here’s the super important part, rather than spending too much time on the previous point, we need to quickly turn to give ourselves a very considered reality check by asking what is the probability that the worst case will actually happen. If the probably is very high then it’s important to focus on solutions and ways to prevent that happening. If the probably is very low, as is often the case, then it’s really important to then focus on more likely scenarios including what’s the best case scenario. From there it’s important to spend more energy on how to make those best scenarios happen. Remember, just because you don’t have the answer right that second doesn’t mean that you won’t figure it out, or get access to someone else who can help you.

You can only make decisions with information you have

Trying to make decisions with information you don’t have is tricky and can certainly take some energy. For example, if you’re trying to organise an interstate workshop and there is variability around border closure, perhaps take away one level of variability and book the event in your own state.

What’s really worth your energy credits? Not speculation…

Making decisions based on speculation is tricky. There has been so much speculation already throughout 2020 and much of it didn’t actually happen. Sure it’s important to stay up to date with any information from experts but trying to make decisions based on speculations from your uber driver is probably not something to give energy to (of course that depends on your uber driver’s full time job).

So while planning is a little more difficult than usual, it’s important to make decisions with information you have, and try to weed out the speculation. Checking in the probability of certain outcomes can be helpful with your decision making process.

If you are grappling with how to best direct your energy in your decision making processes, please do get in touch.